Yesterday morning according to the political betting markets, there was an implied probability of 29% that Scotland would vote yes in the independence referendum.
As a result, almost £4.8bn was wiped off the value of businesses with links to Scotland. Things later recovered, but at the end of the day the loss was a still massive £2.6bn.
This is all on the basis that there is around a 30% chance that Scotland could go independent. Imagine what could happen if Scotland actually voted for independence.
Meanwhile, the Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman has issued a stark warning to Scotland over the yes campaign’s calamitous plans to use sterling no matter what.
You may think that Scotland can become another Canada, but it’s all too likely that it would end up becoming Spain without the sunshine…
The Scottish independence movement has been very clear that it intends to keep the pound as the national currency. And the combination of political independence with a shared currency is a recipe for disaster. Which is where the cautionary tale of Spain comes in…
I find it mind-boggling that Scotland would consider going down this path after all that has happened in the last few years. If Scottish voters really believe that it’s safe to become a country without a currency, they have been badly misled.
Mark Carney today underlined that a currency union and an independent Scotland would be incompatible.
Economists, financial experts and city analysts are queuing up to point out that Scottish independence would be a bad idea.
The housing market has already been affected, with buyers now making their offers conditional on the result of the referendum. I know job seekers who have been turned away by firms citing uncertainty caused by the referendum. This is already costing us too much.
We have just recovered from a global economic crisis. We do not need to vote to create a new Scottish economic crisis all by ourselves.